India solar trajectory: tracking the 280 GW by 2030 target

In 50 words: India's cumulative installed solar crossed roughly 150 GW by March 2026 and about 157 GW by end-May, against the ~280 GW solar slice of the 500 GW non-fossil 2030 target. FY26 added a record ~44 GW. The binding constraint has shifted from deployment pace to storage, grids and DISCOM offtake.

India's solar build-out has moved from "is it happening?" to "can the grid absorb it?" After a record financial year, cumulative installed solar capacity sits at roughly 150 GW (end-March 2026) and near 157 GW by the close of May, making solar the single largest source of renewable electricity in the country. The headline 280 GW by 2030 figure is the solar-specific component of India's broader 500 GW non-fossil generation target announced at COP26. On current run rates the solar target is now within reach — but the bottlenecks have shifted from land and pace to firming, transmission and offtake credibility. This piece tracks where the numbers actually stand and what determines the trajectory to 2030.

Where the numbers stand in 2026
The FY26 record and what it implies for the run rate
Utility-scale versus rooftop: the split
Leading states: Rajasthan and Gujarat
Solar in the generation mix, not just capacity
The binding constraints have shifted
Pricing and the economics of new procurement
What to watch next
Frequently asked questions

1. Where the numbers stand in 2026

Per MNRE data, cumulative installed solar capacity reached about 150 GW as of 31 March 2026, broken down as:

Utility-scale ground-mount: ~110 GW
Rooftop: ~26 GW
KUSUM and off-grid: ~14 GW
Total: ~150 GW

By the end of May 2026 the cumulative figure had climbed to roughly 157 GW, with more than 118 GW ground-mounted and rooftop crossing 27.8 GW. Solar now accounts for more than two-thirds of India's renewable capacity excluding large hydro, and roughly 28 percent of the country's total installed power capacity across all sources.

For context on the wider policy target: India's total installed electricity capacity crossed 500 GW in September 2025, with non-fossil sources passing 250 GW — over half the total, and meeting the COP26 "50 percent non-fossil capacity" pledge roughly five years ahead of schedule. The 280 GW solar and 500 GW non-fossil generation goals for 2030 remain the operative benchmarks.

2. The FY26 record and what it implies for the run rate

FY2026 (April 2025 to March 2026) was the strongest year on record. India installed approximately 44–45 GW of solar — nearly double the roughly 24 GW added in FY25 — alongside about 6 GW of wind. This is a structural break from the ~18–24 GW annual range of prior years and changes the arithmetic of the 2030 target materially.

To move from ~150 GW (March 2026) to 280 GW by 2030 requires roughly 130 GW of additional solar over about four years — an average of just over 30 GW per year. With FY26 already at ~44 GW and FY27 industry estimates pointing to 53–55 GW of combined solar-and-wind additions, the deployment pace required for the solar target is now broadly in line with, or below, current momentum. The earlier concern — that additions would have to roughly double from a low base — has largely been answered by the FY26 surge. The open question is no longer "can India build fast enough?" but "can the system integrate what is being built?"

3. Utility-scale versus rooftop: the split

The FY26 record was led overwhelmingly by utility-scale. Of the ~44 GW added, ground-mounted projects contributed about 34.8 GW (a 106 percent year-on-year jump), while rooftop added roughly 8.7 GW (up about 69 percent year-on-year). Large-scale projects accounted for the bulk of installations through Q1 2026 as well.

Rooftop's acceleration is driven heavily by PM Surya Ghar: Muft Bijli Yojana, the world's largest domestic rooftop programme, launched in February 2024 with a ₹75,021 crore outlay. By end-May 2026 the scheme had solarised around 40 lakh households, with a record 3.16 lakh installations in a single month (May 2026). The government targets one crore households by March 2027. Hitting that would roughly triple residential rooftop participation and is the main lever for narrowing the structural gap between utility-scale and distributed solar.

4. Leading states: Rajasthan and Gujarat

Geographic concentration remains pronounced. Gujarat and Rajasthan together hold over 34 percent of India's total renewable capacity. As of March 2026, Gujarat led on overall RE with about 47.2 GW (roughly 17 percent of the national total) and Rajasthan followed closely at about 47.0 GW.

On solar specifically, Rajasthan is the clear leader — over 22.8 GW of cumulative solar capacity, supported by 325-plus clear sunny days a year and large solar parks on its arid land. The FY26 additions reinforce the pattern: in utility-scale solar, Rajasthan took about 35 percent of new capacity, Gujarat 26 percent and Maharashtra 18 percent. For rooftop, the leaderboard tilts toward Maharashtra (about 25 percent of FY26 rooftop additions) and Gujarat (about 20 percent), reflecting where prosperous urban demand and supportive DISCOMs coincide. The concentration is efficient for resource quality but raises the stakes on inter-state transmission to move power to eastern and southern load centres.

5. Solar in the generation mix, not just capacity

Capacity is the headline, but generation is the harder test. Solar produced about 9.4 percent of India's electricity in 2025, up from 5.3 percent in 2022. Solar generation rose by a record 53 TWh (+37 percent) in 2025, and combined solar-and-wind growth helped drive a 3.3 percent year-on-year fall in fossil-fuel generation — a notable inflection for a system long dominated by coal.

The gap between capacity share (around 28 percent of installed power) and generation share (under 10 percent) reflects solar's lower capacity factor and the daily intermittency profile. Closing that gap toward 2030 depends less on adding panels and more on storage and grid flexibility to shift midday solar into evening peaks — which is precisely where procurement design is now focused.

6. The binding constraints have shifted

The bottleneck list has evolved. Land assembly, once the dominant delay, has eased relative to a new set of system-level constraints:

Firming and storage. Pure solar is plentiful at midday and absent at the evening peak. The marginal value of additional unfirmed solar is falling, which is why new tenders increasingly bundle battery storage and dispatchable obligations.
Transmission and evacuation. Renewable-rich states like Rajasthan and Gujarat are generating faster than inter-state lines can evacuate, creating curtailment risk and stranded-capacity concerns at load centres.
DISCOM offtake credibility. Several state distribution companies still carry payment delays, which raises developer financing costs and tariff bids. The credibility of long-term contracts remains the single largest commercial risk to the 2030 path.

The throughline: India's solar challenge in 2026 is an integration challenge, not a deployment one.

7. Pricing and the economics of new procurement

Tariffs continue to anchor solar's competitiveness. The lowest standalone solar tariff in 2025 auctions was about ₹2.70/kWh — down roughly 21 percent from ₹3.41/kWh in 2024 — keeping new solar comfortably below the cost of new thermal generation. Solar-plus-storage is the more telling number: bids for BESS-bundled solar landed around ₹2.86/kWh in SECI's large interstate tranches in 2025.

That spread — firmed, round-the-clock-capable solar at under ₹3/kWh — is what makes the integration-focused procurement of 2026 economically viable rather than aspirational. As storage costs continue to fall, the finance case for firm renewable contracts strengthens, which in turn is what could pull DISCOMs toward the long-term offtake structures the 2030 target depends on.

8. What to watch next

Three developments will set the FY27–FY30 trajectory. First, the resource-adequacy and firm-capacity rules under discussion at the Ministry of Power: if they mandate long-term firm contracts that favour solar-plus-storage, they could lock in the offtake credibility developers need. Second, the pace of inter-state transmission build-out, which will determine how much of Rajasthan's and Gujarat's output actually reaches demand. Third, whether PM Surya Ghar can sustain its record monthly run rate toward the one-crore-household goal by March 2027. Together these — not raw deployment speed — will decide whether India lands the 280 GW solar mark and the broader 500 GW non-fossil generation target by 2030.

Frequently asked questions

How much solar capacity does India have in 2026?

As of 31 March 2026, India had roughly 150 GW of cumulative installed solar capacity per MNRE, rising to about 157 GW by the end of May 2026. That makes solar the largest single source of renewable electricity in the country, accounting for more than two-thirds of renewable capacity excluding large hydro.

Is India on track to hit 280 GW of solar by 2030?

On deployment pace, broadly yes. FY26 added a record ~44 GW of solar, and reaching 280 GW from ~150 GW requires about 30 GW per year on average — below the current run rate. The risk to the target is no longer build speed but system integration: storage, transmission capacity and DISCOM offtake credibility.

What is the difference between the 280 GW and 500 GW targets?

The 500 GW figure is India's target for total non-fossil electricity generation capacity by 2030, announced at COP26. The roughly 280 GW solar figure is the solar-specific component of that broader goal, which also includes wind, hydro, nuclear and bioenergy.

Which Indian state has the most solar capacity?

Rajasthan leads on solar with over 22.8 GW of cumulative capacity, helped by 325-plus sunny days a year and large solar parks. Gujarat is close behind on overall renewable capacity (about 47.2 GW) and led FY26 rooftop additions, while Rajasthan led utility-scale additions at roughly 35 percent of the national total.

What share of India's electricity comes from solar?

Solar generated about 9.4 percent of India's electricity in 2025, up from 5.3 percent in 2022. While solar is around 28 percent of installed power capacity, its lower capacity factor means generation share lags capacity share — the gap that storage and grid flexibility are meant to close toward 2030.

How cheap is solar power in India now?

The lowest standalone solar tariff in 2025 auctions was about ₹2.70/kWh, down from ₹3.41/kWh in 2024. Solar bundled with battery storage bid around ₹2.86/kWh, keeping firmed renewable power below the cost of new coal generation.

Researched and drafted with AI assistance; reviewed and edited by the named editor within 24 hours of draft.

Table of contents